When the game is close and the innings are late - 7th inning or later, within 3 runs - the Cleveland lineup changes shape. It stops being... whatever it looks like on paper, and it starts to become a completely different beast.
Jim Thome bats .252 across 69 timelines. He hits home runs that leave the bat at 175 mph. He is, by any reasonable assessment, one of the most dangerous hitters in either lineup.
But in close-and-late situations, Jim Thome posts rookie numbers: .137 batting average, with barely 7 hits and 2 RBIs in 54 plate appearances. With 17 strikeouts (a strikeout rate of 31.5%) in close-and-late situations, the guy is a serious liability.
Omar Vizquel, a light-hitting shortstop whose main job is defense and putting the ball in play, bats .316 across 69 timelines. With just 1 home run in 364 plate appearances, he is not supposed to be the hero.
But in close-and-late situations, Omar Vizquel becomes a beast, batting .553 and knocking 21 hits with just 5 strikeouts in 47 plate appearances. Cleveland's mediocre hitter at shortstop becomes the best hitter in baseball when the game is on the line.
The gap between them - .137 and .553 - is not a normal spread. It is a chasm. It is two players occupying the same lineup, playing the same game, but functionally, in different universes.
Omar Vizquel @ baseball-reference.com
In 47 close-and-late plate appearances across 69 timelines:
He reaches base 31 of 47 times. A .660 on-base percentage when the game is tight. This is not a real number. This is a number that belongs to a create-a-player in a video game that someone set to 99 in every clutch attribute.
In Timeline 27, the game tied 2-2 in the bottom of the 9th, Vizquel singles off Robb Nen with runners on first and third to walk it off. In Timeline 14, down 2 in the 8th with runners on second and third, he singles in both. In Timeline 68 - the 25-24 Apocalypse Game - he singles with the bases loaded in the bottom of the 9th, part of an 8-run rally that nearly saves Cleveland. In Timeline 49, bases loaded in the 7th, he singles in a run to extend the lead.
He does this everywhere. Every timeline. Every late-inning situation. The pitcher delivers the ball and Vizquel puts it in play and gets on base. Over and over. The multiverse does not contain a version of the 7th, 8th, or 9th inning where Omar Vizquel can be reliably retired.
Matt Williams @ baseball-reference.com
In 51 close-and-late plate appearances:
Five home runs. Fourteen RBI. Three strikeouts. A 5.9% strikeout rate in late-and-close, against a 15.1% rate overall. Matt Williams doesn't maintain his baseline when the game is on the line, he steps up and improves. He becomes harder to strike out. He hits for more power. And most importantly, he hits with runners on.
Every single one of his 5 close-and-late home runs comes with runners on base:
Three of those five home runs are walk-offs. Three of five. When the game goes past 9 innings, Matt Williams ends it with a swing.
Jim Thome @ baseball-reference.com
In 54 close-and-late plate appearances:
Zero home runs. The man who hits baseballs at 175 mph, who has 10 home runs across 69 timelines including bombs off Leiter and everyone else - when the game tightens to within 3 runs in the 7th inning or later, he cannot leave the park. Not once. Fifty-four tries. Zero.
And the strikeouts. Seventeen in 54 plate appearances. Let the contexts speak:
That last one - Timeline 67, the 23-22 game - Thome strikes out with the tying run on third base. It is the last at-bat of the game. Cleveland loses by 1. In the first inning of that same game, Thome hit a grand slam off Al Leiter at 173 mph.
The first inning and the ninth inning might as well be different sports for Jim Thome. In one, he is a god. In the other, he is swinging at air.
Here is every player with 20+ close-and-late plate appearances, ranked by batting average:
| Player | PA | AVG | HR | K | K% | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omar Vizquel | 47 | .553 | 1 | 5 | 10.6% | 6 |
| Bip Roberts | 54 | .370 | 0 | 7 | 13.0% | 7 |
| Tony Fernandez | 54 | .371 | 1 | 4 | 7.4% | 7 |
| Matt Williams | 51 | .333 | 5 | 3 | 5.9% | 14 |
| David Justice | 55 | .327 | 2 | 7 | 12.7% | 12 |
| Sandy Alomar Jr | 53 | .302 | 1 | 2 | 3.8% | 12 |
| Edgar Renteria | 64 | .312 | 1 | 6 | 9.4% | 13 |
| Moises Alou | 48 | .311 | 1 | 8 | 16.7% | 13 |
| Jim Eisenreich | 62 | .311 | 2 | 4 | 6.5% | 10 |
| Devon White | 58 | .288 | 3 | 8 | 13.8% | 15 |
| Gary Sheffield | 58 | .288 | 1 | 9 | 15.5% | 10 |
| Bobby Bonilla | 61 | .283 | 3 | 8 | 13.1% | 10 |
| Darren Daulton | 62 | .250 | 1 | 14 | 22.6% | 7 |
| Marquis Grissom | 43 | .250 | 0 | 4 | 9.3% | 5 |
| Manny Ramirez | 52 | .234 | 1 | 13 | 25.0% | 8 |
| Craig Counsell | 63 | .234 | 0 | 2 | 3.2% | 3 |
| Charles Johnson | 63 | .224 | 1 | 9 | 14.3% | 6 |
| Jim Thome | 54 | .137 | 0 | 17 | 31.5% | 2 |
The bottom of that table is Jim Thome. The cleanup hitter. The man the lineup is built around. Dead last, by a wide margin, among every regular player in both lineups. Below Craig Counsell, who hits .211 overall. Below Charles Johnson. Below the backup catcher and the utility infielder and everyone else.
And at the top: the shortstop. The nine-hole hitter. The guy who bats for his glove.
The multiverse has opinions about who is clutch. Those opinions have nothing to do with reputation, salary, or power numbers. When the game is close and the innings are late, the real stars aren't always who you expect.